# What a crypto signal channel's win rate counts

Which target counts as a hit, whether open losers count, leverage inside the percentage, and what Telegram, exchanges and Whop let you verify or refund.

*https://cryptomarkets.tools/guides/what-a-signal-channels-win-rate-counts · background to Crypto Trading Bots*

**Answer:** A signal channel's win rate is a count the seller defines: which target counts as a hit, whether open losers are in it, and whether a move is quoted after leverage. Telegram lets a channel owner delete any post for every subscriber, so the history you scroll is what was kept. An exchange copy-trading profile is computed by the venue from one real account, which makes it the most checkable public record and still not the whole picture.

## How it works

A call is a post. It names a pair, a side, an entry zone, a ladder of targets, a stop and often a
leverage, and it goes out to every member of a Telegram or Discord channel at once. Later the same
channel posts the outcome: a target reached, a stop hit, or nothing at all. The win rate in the
channel's bio is a tally of those outcome posts, kept by the person who sells the subscription.

Nothing in that chain is tied to an order. The call is text, the outcome is text, and whether anyone,
the seller included, traded it is not recorded anywhere a subscriber can see.

The channel itself is an editable archive. Telegram's [Channels FAQ](https://telegram.org/faq_channels)
says the owner "can broadcast messages, delete any messages", and that "if a message is deleted in a
channel, it will disappear for all subscribers." Posts carry the channel's name, not the author's,
and "if the signatures are disabled, there is no way for users to know whether a message was posted
by the owner or one of the administrators." So the history a prospective buyer scrolls through
before paying is the set of posts its owner chose to leave, written by people the buyer cannot
identify.

## Four definitions that move the number

None of these needs a false post. Each is a choice about what to count, and a channel rarely says
which choice it made.

**1. Which target is a hit.** Take a long call with three targets at +2%, +5% and +10% and a stop at
−8%. This example is ours. Price touches the first target, turns, and runs down to the stop. A
channel that scores a call as won when the first target is touched records a win. A member who held
the whole position for the last target lost 8% of it, and one who closed a third at each target
still lost on the remainder. The same price path is a win or a loss depending on a rule the buyer
was never shown.

**2. Counted by trade, not by size.** Where a venue does publish its win-rate formula, it counts
positions. Binance's
[copy-trading FAQ](https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/portfolio-performance-indicators-in-binance-futures-copy-trading-54aa6d3b43bc4f6eb4a3a6e3aea40acd)
defines it as "Number of Profitable Closed Positions / Total Number of Positions", and adds that a
position closed only in part "doesn't count as a closed position". Count-based means size-blind:
nine calls that each make 1% and one that loses 20% are a 90% win rate and a loss of about 11% on an
equal stake per call. In a channel, a call with no stop that is still underwater is not a loss
until somebody posts that it is.

**3. Leverage inside the percentage.** Binance's
[futures calculator](https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/how-to-use-the-binance-futures-calculator-360036498511)
gives "ROI% = PnL / Initial Margin", with the initial margin rate "IMR = 1 / leverage". The return is
measured against the margin, not the position, so a 1% move in the price of a
[perpetual](https://cryptomarkets.tools/glossary/perpetual-futures) at 20x reads as 20%, and "+300%" can be a 15% move at 20x.
The same multiplier works the other way: a 5% move against that position is the whole margin, and
the venue's [liquidation](https://cryptomarkets.tools/glossary/liquidation) rules close it before it gets there. A percentage
with no leverage beside it cannot be compared with anything.

**4. Adding instead of compounding.** Returns from separate periods multiply. A period of +25% then
one of −20% leaves an account where it started, since 1.25 × 0.80 = 1.00; added together they read
as +5%. Exchanges do not all chain periods the same way either. Bitget's
[rule for copy-trading ROI](https://www.bitget.com/support/articles/12560603796237), dated 15 August
2023, is "Total ROI = current ROI + sum of historical ROI per period", where a period restarts at
each transfer, and beginning assets under 200 USDT are treated as 200 USDT. Bitget changed how
position-level ROI is computed in a
[notice of 24 May 2024](https://www.bitget.com/support/articles/12560603810169), which does not say it
replaces the account-level rule, and both pages describe themselves as time-sensitive. Binance, by
contrast, divides PnL by a maximum base balance of deposits net of withdrawals. A "total ROI" from
one venue is not the same quantity as one from another.

## What a venue-computed profile shows

A copy-trading profile on an exchange is a different kind of evidence. The trades are fills in a
real account and the venue, not the trader, computes the figures under a formula it publishes. On
Binance's futures copy trading, as its FAQ describes it:

- **PnL** is "Realized + Unrealized Profit or Loss", so a losing position held open shows up here
  even though it is not yet in the win rate.
- **ROI** is PnL divided by MaxBaseBalance, where base balance is the initial deposit plus net
  deposits; the page says all existing lead portfolios were recomputed this way from 12 November
  2025.
- **Maximum drawdown** is measured on ROI from its historical peak.
- **The Sharpe ratio** is annualised with a 0% risk-free rate and "will not be displayed if the
  portfolio has been trading for less than 30 days".
- ROI and PnL are updated hourly.

What a profile cannot show is everything outside that one account. The venue does not see the
trader's other accounts or other exchanges. It does not show whether the calls in a paid channel are
the trades in the profile, made at the same time, or a selection from them. And a copier's own
orders follow the leader's, so their fills differ by whatever the price did in between: the
[slippage](https://cryptomarkets.tools/glossary/slippage) that a leader's ROI never contains.

Some sellers offer a third-party tracker that reads their exchange account through an API key. That
proves the trades in the keyed account and nothing about the others; what such a key can and cannot
reach on each venue is set out in
[what your exchange API key lets a trading bot do](https://cryptomarkets.tools/guides/what-your-api-key-lets-a-bot-do).

## Where the call sends your money

A signal can earn its seller money in ways that have nothing to do with whether it is right. An
exchange sign-up link in the channel description is the plainest: the referral mechanics are in
[who pays for your free trading bot](https://cryptomarkets.tools/guides/who-pays-for-your-free-trading-bot).

The costlier pattern is a group that chooses the venue for you. In its complaint against Morocoin
Tech Corp. and others, filed on 22 December 2025
([LR-26453](https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-26453)), the SEC
alleges that defendants operated "so-called investment clubs using WhatsApp" with "supposedly
AI-generated investment tips", steered members to trading platforms where "no trading took place",
demanded "advance fees" from victims, and took at least $14 million. These are allegations in a
pending case. The CFTC's
[messaging-app advisory of 31 October 2024](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9005-24)
describes the same setting from the other end: groups that talk of "trading crypto futures with
leverage" and "cooperative trading projects", which it calls "also called pump-and-dump schemes",
with "testimonials from other group members" that are "all fake".

Neither is a case about a paid signal channel that simply sells calls. We found no US or UK
enforcement action that charges one as such. That absence is itself the point for a buyer: nobody
outside the channel has checked the numbers in its bio.

## What a regulator says about the claims

The CFTC's
[advisory on AI trading scams](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8854-24), issued on
25 January 2024, names "algorithms that provide buy and sell signals to subscribers" among the
products scammers promote, and claims that they "yield 100 percent 'win' rates" among the signs. Its
case study is Mirror Trading International, where the CFTC says the operator "created fake customer
accounts and balances using MetaTrader demo accounts".

For futures advisers inside its rules, the CFTC prescribes what a hypothetical record has to say.
Under [17 CFR 4.41](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/4.41) the statement begins "These results
are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations",
says the results "do not represent actual trading", and that such programs are "designed with the
benefit of hindsight". It must sit "in immediate proximity" to the figures, and the rule applies to
material on the internet and "regardless of whether the commodity pool operator or commodity trading
advisor is exempt from registration". NFA
[Rule 2-29](https://www.nfa.futures.org/rulebook/rules.aspx?RuleID=RULE%202-29&Section=4) goes
further for members: actual results must be "representative of the actual performance for the same
time period of all reasonably comparable accounts" and net of all fees, and a member may not show
hypothetical results for a system once it "has three months of actual trading results for that
system".

Whether any of that reaches a given channel depends on what it advises on and where it operates.
The CFTC's [registration check page](https://www.cftc.gov/check) says venues offering spot trading
in virtual currencies "are not required to be registered with the CFTC", while the agency keeps
"general anti-fraud and manipulation enforcement authority" over those markets. The rules are
useful to a buyer as a yardstick either way: a seller who would fail them is showing a record that a
supervised adviser could not.

Warning lists help less than they look. The CFTC says inclusion on its
[RED List](https://www.cftc.gov/LearnAndProtect/Resources/Check/redlist.htm) "does not mean that the
CFTC or a court has concluded that a violation" occurred, and tells readers to check registration
"even if the entity you are considering is not on the RED List". In the UK, the FCA said on
[24 April 2026](https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-spearheads-global-action-stop-illegal-finfluencers)
that of 1,267 illegal financial adverts it found on Meta platforms during a week of action, 66% came
"from firms or individuals already on the" FCA's Warning List. Being listed did not stop them
advertising, and not being listed shows nothing.

## What it costs

The subscription price is printed; whether you can get it back depends on how you paid it.

| How you paid | What you can do if it goes wrong | Who decides |
|---|---|---|
| Card or other fiat on Whop | Open a Resolution Center case "within 120 days of each payment" | The seller first, with 7 days to answer; Whop if the seller does not; one appeal, then final |
| Crypto on Whop | Nothing through Whop: payments "made with cryptocurrency via Coinbase Commerce aren't eligible since they're irreversible and non-refundable" | — |
| A card, through the issuer | A chargeback | "The customer's bank makes the final decision", which Whop says typically takes 2–3 months |
| Telegram Stars | Ask the bot via /paysupport, then report to Telegram if a legitimate refund is refused | "All sales of Telegram Stars are final"; a refund for an undelivered purchase is the developer's to give |
| Crypto sent to the seller's wallet | Ask the seller | The seller |

Sources: Whop's [Resolution Center](https://docs.whop.com/manage-your-business/manage-payments/resolution-center)
and [disputes](https://docs.whop.com/manage-your-business/manage-payments/manage-disputes) pages, and
Telegram's [Stars terms](https://telegram.org/tos/stars). Whop's
[rules for sellers](https://docs.whop.com/trust-and-safety/trust-safety-overview/what-is-not-allowed-on-whop)
also require that "any direct or implied earnings claims must be accurate, substantiated, and not
misleading" and that testimonials "disclose atypical results", which gives a buyer something
specific to report a channel's bio against.

The larger cost is not the fee. It is the position size you put behind calls whose record you could
not check, at the leverage the call suggested.

## What you can do about it

**Save every call when it arrives.** A screenshot or a forwarded copy with the time on it, in a
place the channel cannot reach. Deletion in a channel is complete, so this archive is the only record
of what was actually sent, and it is the one thing a later dispute will need.

**Ask for the definitions before you pay.** Which target counts as a win? Are stopped-out and still
open calls in the count? What leverage is the percentage at? Are period returns added or compounded?
A channel that cannot answer in writing is quoting a number it has not defined.

**Recompute without leverage.** Divide the advertised percentage by the leverage in the call, then
count each call at the last target with the stop as posted. That is the move in the market, which is
the only figure two channels can be compared on.

**Prefer a profile the venue computes, and read its formula.** If the seller has a copy-trading
profile, check how long it has existed, its maximum drawdown and its leverage, and read that venue's
definitions rather than assuming they match another's. Remember it is one account.

**Check a tracker's key before you trust it, and before you hand one over.** A read-only key proves
less than a tracker's badge suggests, and a key with trading rights proves nothing more while
risking more.

**Execute on a venue you chose.** A group that names the exchange, the app or the wallet you must
use is the pattern in the SEC's Morocoin complaint, and a demand for a fee before a withdrawal is its
last step.

**Pay in a way that can be reversed.** On Whop, a card keeps the 120-day case window and the
chargeback; crypto keeps neither. Stars are final unless the developer refunds.

**Keep your own fills.** If you run a channel's calls through a bot or a terminal, its order history
is the record of what you earned. [Altrady](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/altrady) has a trade journal, and signal bots
such as [WunderTrading](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/wundertrading) and [3Commas](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/3commas) turn an alert into an
order on your own exchange account, where the exchange's history records the fill.

**Report it where a rule applies.** An earnings claim that breaks Whop's rule goes to Whop. Money
taken on a platform where nothing traded is fraud to report to the police and, in the US, the FBI's
IC3; in the UK, to the FCA.

**Expect a second approach.** Someone who lost money to a group is the target of the next pitch: an
offer to recover it for a fee. How that works, and what US and UK authorities say about it, is in
[why a crypto recovery offer asks for a fee first](https://cryptomarkets.tools/guides/why-a-crypto-recovery-offer-asks-for-a-fee).

## Tools this bears on

- [Altrady](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/altrady.md) — Multi-exchange trading workspace — smart orders, scanners, bots and a journal.
- [WunderTrading](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/wundertrading.md) — TradingView-alert execution, grid and DCA bots, and a REST API and MCP server on top.
- [3Commas](https://cryptomarkets.tools/tools/3commas.md) — Hosted DCA, grid and signal bots on nine exchanges, relaunched in 2026 with WunderTrading.

## FAQ

### Is a 90% win rate on a crypto signal channel good?

It says nothing on its own. A win rate counts trades, not money, so nine small winners and one large loser make 90% and a net loss. It also depends on which target the channel counts as a hit and on whether calls still open are in the count at all.

### Can a Telegram signal channel delete its losing calls?

Telegram's own FAQ says the owner of a channel can delete any message, and that a message deleted in a channel disappears for all subscribers. A channel's history is therefore what its owner kept, and only a copy you saved when the call arrived shows what was actually sent.

### Why do signal channels quote such large percentages?

On a leveraged futures call the percentage is usually return on margin. Binance's futures calculator defines ROI as PnL divided by initial margin, with the initial margin rate equal to one over the leverage, so a 1% price move at 20x is shown as 20%.

### Is an exchange copy-trading profile a verified track record?

It is the venue's own calculation from real fills in one account, with a published formula, which a channel's posts are not. It cannot show the trader's other accounts, or whether a paid channel's calls are the same trades as the profile.

### Can I get my money back from a signal group?

It depends on how you paid. Whop's Resolution Center takes cases within 120 days of each payment, but only for fiat payments; crypto paid through Coinbase Commerce is not eligible. Telegram says all sales of Stars are final, and a refund for an undelivered purchase is up to the bot's developer.

## Sources

1. [Channels FAQ](https://telegram.org/faq_channels) — Telegram, read 2026-10-27
2. [Terms of Service for Telegram Stars](https://telegram.org/tos/stars) — Telegram, read 2026-10-27
3. [Portfolio Performance Indicators in Binance Futures Copy Trading](https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/portfolio-performance-indicators-in-binance-futures-copy-trading-54aa6d3b43bc4f6eb4a3a6e3aea40acd) — Binance, 2026-07-15
4. [How to Use the Binance Futures Calculator?](https://www.binance.com/en/support/faq/how-to-use-the-binance-futures-calculator-360036498511) — Binance, 2026-01-09
5. [Bitget Copy Trading: Rules for calculating ROI](https://www.bitget.com/support/articles/12560603796237) — Bitget, 2023-08-15. Bitget's published account-level rule; its May 2024 notice changed position-level ROI and does not say it replaces this one.
6. [Bitget copy trading: announcement on updated futures copy trading ROI calculation](https://www.bitget.com/support/articles/12560603810169) — Bitget, 2024-05-24
7. [Resolution Center](https://docs.whop.com/manage-your-business/manage-payments/resolution-center) — Whop, read 2026-10-27
8. [Manage disputes](https://docs.whop.com/manage-your-business/manage-payments/manage-disputes) — Whop, read 2026-10-27
9. [What is not allowed on Whop](https://docs.whop.com/trust-and-safety/trust-safety-overview/what-is-not-allowed-on-whop) — Whop, read 2026-10-27
10. [CFTC Customer Advisory Cautions the Public to Beware of Artificial Intelligence Scams (Release 8854-24)](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8854-24) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 2024-01-25
11. [CFTC Warns of Potential Dangers for Messaging App Users (Release 9005-24)](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9005-24) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 2024-10-31
12. [Litigation Release No. 26453, SEC v. Morocoin Tech Corp., et al.](https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-26453) — U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 2025-12-22
13. [17 CFR 4.41, Advertising by commodity pool operators, commodity trading advisors, and the principals thereof](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/4.41) — Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School, read 2026-10-27
14. [Compliance Rule 2-29, Communications with the public and promotional material](https://www.nfa.futures.org/rulebook/rules.aspx?RuleID=RULE%202-29&Section=4) — National Futures Association, read 2026-10-27
15. [Be Smart: Check Registration & Backgrounds Before You Trade](https://www.cftc.gov/check) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission, read 2026-10-27
16. [RED (Registration Deficient) List](https://www.cftc.gov/LearnAndProtect/Resources/Check/redlist.htm) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission, read 2026-10-27
17. [FCA spearheads global action to stop illegal finfluencers](https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-spearheads-global-action-stop-illegal-finfluencers) — Financial Conduct Authority, 2026-04-24

*Last updated 2026-10-27. A reference page, corrected in place — not a dated post.*